Has Russia Put The US’ Superpower Status To Test On Ukraine?

Has Russia Put The US’ Superpower Status To Test On Ukraine?

By: Akhil Pathak (Twitter: @akhilpathak86)

Tensions are high in the international community as Russia has amassed over 100,000 troops at different locations on the border that it shares with Ukraine. Official statements from Ukraine allege that a Russian battle group comprising of tanks, artillery and heavy armoured vehicles has taken tactical position on the forefront in the areas that are held by Russian-backed rebels/separatists. Western intelligence agencies have raised concerns over Russia’s offensive postures near the eastern parts of Ukraine and are anticipating a Russian invasion of Ukraine, sometime in the early 2022.

Image Source: atlanticcouncil.org

Russia has categorically denied any plans to invade Ukraine and has justified the troop buildup as its ‘right to move troops on its territory’. However, post the 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia from Ukraine, the chances of another Russian invasion on Ukraine are high.

Is The Threat Real?

Well soon after Crimea was annexed, the situation in the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, started to turn very ugly. Therefore, in 2015, the ‘Minsk Deal’ was signed with an aim to propel the situation in eastern Ukraine towards the much sought after normalcy. However, the situation still continues to remain fragile & volatile. Russia says that no concrete steps have been taken to ensure peace in the region particularly on the issue of carrying out an independently monitored election in the rebel-held regions. 

In a counter allegation, Moscow said that Ukraine has deployed around 125,000 troops in its eastern regions and is planning to launch an attack on territories controlled by Russian-backed separatists. It must be noted that earlier this month, a Russian official said that around 500,000 Ukrainians in the rebel-held areas hold Russian passports. He further added that if the rebels feel that a Ukrainian attack upon them is imminent and ask Russia for help, then “of course we cannot abandon our compatriots”.

The Epicentre Of This Tension

President Vladimir Putin, in a stark warning to western powers, has already laid down what he states as- ‘Russia’s Red Lines on Ukraine’. One of them being Russia’s opposition to Ukraine joining the NATO alliance as Russia strongly perceives NATO as a security threat and would not want the alliance to reach closer to Russia via Ukraine. Russia also believes that NATO forces would build offensive military infrastructure and deploy advanced weaponry near its border, once Ukraine joins the alliance.

However, a senior NATO official has said that Russia does not have a veto as well as any right to interfere in the process of Ukraine joining the alliance and it is up to Ukraine and the 30 NATO allies to take the final call on this issue.

Who Has The Edge?

The US and Russia held a virtual summit last week with an aim to diffuse the ongoing Ukraine tensions. A while after the video conference that lasted for more than 2 hours, US President Joe Biden said that he has made it clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that there would be "economic consequences like none he's ever seen" if he invaded Ukraine. It was also revealed that President Putin does not want NATO to expand eastwards towards Russia and demanded “reliable, legal guarantees” to ensure that.

While the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has said that the eastern flank of NATO would be strengthened in case of an invasion on Ukraine, but the US so far has ruled out any unilateral deployment of its troops on the Ukrainian soil. The G7 has also echoed the US’ warning of imposing severe economic sanctions on Russia if Ukraine is invaded. Germany has said that the 1200 kilometres long Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany will not be given a green light in the current scenario as both Germany and the US do not want the pipeline to be used by Russia as a political weapon.

There are reports that the US and its European allies could sanction big Russian banking institutions and prevent them from converting Russian Rouble to USD or other European currencies, for that matter. At the extreme end of the possible economic sanctions would be- barring Russia from the SWIFT Financial Payments System. However, barring Russia from accessing SWIFT would impact the ordinary Russian citizens in a highly negative manner, therefore, the chances of implementing such a drastic economic sanction are very low.

Since Russia is threatened with excruciating economic sanctions, there is a fair probability that Russia would eventually soften its stance. However, after what happened in 2014 with respect to Crimea, the possibility of an armed Russian aggression on Ukraine cannot be ruled out either.

(Akhil Pathak is a Freelance Writer who is an observer of global politics & geo-strategic matters, with special focus on the security framework of India. He keeps a watchful eye on key developments that are related to health, defence and psychology. He also tracks concerning social issues that warrant immediate attention.)