How The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Exposed A Large Number Of 'Geopolitical Experts'?

How The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Has Exposed A Large Number Of 'Geopolitical Experts'? 

By: Akhil Pathak (Twitter: @akhilpathak86)

Long before launching a military strike on Ukraine, Russia from early November 2021, started massing troops on the border that it shares with Ukraine and justified it in the cloak of military exercises. Russia while denying any intention of invading Ukraine, kept on asserting one of its primary demands that- under no circumstances, should Ukraine be inducted as a member of NATO.

From that very point, it was evident to any layman with even half of a functioning & geopolitically aware brain, that Russia is dead serious about securing an assurance from Ukraine and more importantly from the US/NATO that- Ukraine will not join the NATO alliance or in simple terms- NATO will not expand eastwards.

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How Did The 'Experts' Perceive The Situation?

The Russian troop buildup continued to expand in a very calculated & pre-determined manner right from the beginning of November and by the end of December 2021, it took on the form of a military deployment that appeared far more aggressive than it normally does in regular military exercises.

However, many 'Geopolitical Analysts' or 'Experts' on Security Affairs, shunned the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, giving the usual reasons like:

• Putin is throwing empty threats at the West,
• Putin is simply trying to scare the West,
• Putin just wants some relief from the existing sanctions,
• Putin is testing the resolve of NATO but he will go only that much far,

and my favourite one:

• Putin cannot afford to start a war given the current state of the Russian economy

But interestingly, none of the 'geniuses' making such analysis, bothered to look at the fact that it is the same Putin who, back in 2014, annexed the Crimean peninsula in a heartbeat and despite Russia being under excruciating sanctions ever since, those sanctions utterly failed to compel Putin to chart any course correction from his approach.

So, let's talk about in detail, the Russian military buildup before the invasion. 

All the 'experts' who were anticipating a retreat from the Russian side back to their bases/garrisons, ignored the news that the Russians have set up Blood Banks near the sites of troop deployment which obviously meant that they had already established full fledged war time medical infrastructure to treat the wounded from a battle that as per them, was certain. 

Now, at that time, one could have easily argued that those blood banks and medical infrastructure was simply part of the usual precautionary measures, that are adopted in case of any military exercise.

Well in that case, let me ask those people: 

"Which was the last military exercise that they saw/observed, that had such precise, large scale & sophisticated war zone medical infrastructure being set up?"

By a layman's guess pertaining to a military buildup that is strictly for the purpose of military/training exercises, every major site of an exercise would perhaps have an evacuation helicopter or at most may be two of those, put on standby to transport anyone who might get hurt during the training exercise to the nearest military hospital. 

And that's about it!

Even a person who has a very rudimentary knowledge of various military conflicts of the past, would understand that when such an elaborate medical infrastructure is being set up near the border areas, particularly at a time when tensions in the entire region are soaring high, then obviously the troop buildup is certainly not for training exercises.

The Writing Was Already On The Wall

 

Right from January 2022, the US administration started screaming out loud that Russia will invade Ukraine and the invasion will happen latest by February end, but, the Russian administration remained consistent in reiterating that- 'Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine'.

However, taking into account the personality & resolve of Russian President Vladimir Putin that he displayed by annexing Crimea in 2014, it became crystal clear by January 2022 that if Russia backs off now, then it will not only further embolden Ukraine's resolve to challenge the Russian hegemony in the region but who knows, maybe even result in the NATO finally inducting Ukraine into the alliance after watching Russia fold its cards of military aggression to the West in the geopolitical game of poker!

While the merits of Russia's security concerns can be debated but anyone with a basic understanding about the regional dynamics that were at play, would have easily deciphered that since Ukraine as well as the US/NATO has refused Mr. Putin's demands vis-a-vis his security concerns, he doesn't have any other choice left now and would have to launch a military incursion into Ukraine, as a retreat could very well result in the end of his authority.

Therefore, chances of Russia backing down, went right through the window, but none of the 'experts' saw that writing on the wall. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at what passes off as 'geopolitical/strategic analysis' these days.

The Real 'Genius' Of These 'Experts'

People who are simply less informed about the developments taking place in the geopolitical space, are understandably not aware of the complex chain of events that either in a slow & gradual yet decisive manner, continue to shape up the regional dynamics or in certain cases, take the form of a major/sudden geopolitical event. 

Therefore, it is very easy for someone with a crafted media/social media image of an 'expert' on geopolitics or strategic affairs, to showcase himself as an authority on such matters.

These days, there are a large number YouTube channels on which the hosts present both their own point of views/analysis on various subjects as well as invite one or more speakers to hold a discussion/debate on any specific topic of public interest.

Unfortunately, many so called experts infiltrate these YouTube channels and successfully manage to portray themselves as masters in geopolitics & security affairs by throwing around geopolitical jargons & fancy diplomatic vocabulary at the general (less informed) public.

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Sadly, more often than not, the public gets impressed by such hollow tactics/gimmicks and soon the so called experts, end up with a huge number of social media following that compels/entices multiple YouTube channels as well as even many main-stream media channels, to invite them to their platform with an aim of getting a high level of viewership.

Such third rate 'experts' are a blot on the critical field of Geopolitical Analysis that requires a lot of study and in-depth research before one reaches even close to being called an expert in the real sense. Despite having a track record of being proven wrong over & over again on their analysis, they shamelessly try to cover their failures each time by giving 'intellectually loaded' justifications which in essence, are nothing but lame excuses.

Some of these 'geniuses' are even working in certain Think Tanks (so to speak) as research fellows, which would actually urge a person to conclude that- "It looks like those think tanks, apparently, don't really have much to think about!" 

However, things are changing very fast as people are no longer that ignorant and have started to gauge the standard of the analysis made by such 'experts'. People are doing some research & reading of their own and thereby subsequently calling these 'experts' out on the garbage that they are trying to pass on in the public domain as 'high level analysis'.

Lastly, one must not forget that- there are indeed a lot of genuine Geopolitical Experts/Analysts out there who have dedicated a large part of their lives studying & understanding the complexities involved in strategic affairs, diplomacy and geopolitics. One must follow & learn from those real subject matter experts and gain from their invaluable practical exposure & immense experience! 

(Akhil Pathak is a Freelance Writer who is an observer of global politics & geo-strategic matters, with special focus on the security framework of India. He keeps a watchful eye on key developments that are related to health, defence and psychology. He also tracks concerning social issues that warrant immediate attention.)